Projected Carbon dioxide emissions levels
in Scotland to 2050
The diagram above depicts the carbon dioxide
emissions profiles for Scotland under three different scenarios.
All the scenarios use the same conservative assumptions for demand
growth in Scotland: Demand for electricity grows by 1.0 per cent
to 2010, then 0.5 per cent to 2025; Exports mirror the current
level (no increase); Existing nuclear and coal stations have a
35 year operating lifetime; Hydroelectricity contributes at historical
levels; Any shortfalls that emerge are taken by extra gas generation.
In the transitions scenario, coal and oil maintain
their current capacity (which means its overall proportion will
decrease in relative terms as demand grows). Renewable generation
reaches the 10 per cent target by 2010, and grows to 20 per cent
by 2020. In the dash for gas scenario, the share of coal and oil
is gradually replaced by gas, and again renewables achieve significant
market penetration. In the final scenario, like the dash for gas,
renewables don't meet the 20 per cent target in 2010, but only
reach 15 per cent.
The 12.5 per cent reduction in emissions for
the Kyoto commitment is for a package of GHG's, and the CO2 portion
of this is likely to be less. The level shown here is what Scotland's
Electricity Sector commitment would be on a pro rata basis with
the UK. The 1990 level (15MtC) and 20 per cent reduction (12MtC)
demonstrate the national target for CO2 emissions.
For all of the scenarios it is apparent that
there is a tension between where the market is going, and the
environmental needs. Up until 2010 there are no real problems,
but this is something of a "false dawn". Within the
first commitment period for Kyoto (2008-12), it is not clear whether
Scotland will meet its emissions reductions target, and around
the period of the last two years of the commitment period emissions
will rise well above the target of 13.7to over 15 MtCO2
annually with the closure of one of the nuclear power stations.
This cycle repeats in around 2023 with the proposed
closure of the second nuclear power station. So the emissions
reductions are not sustained post-Kyoto at a time when we may
be looking at meeting further Kyoto targets.
Both renewables and gas have a role to play
in this future, and it is now that we should be addressing the
key issues to develop renewable generation to meet the 10 per
cent (UK) target as a milestone towards further growth. Scotland
has proposed an 18 per cent target for renewable generation given
the strong base of around 11 per cent supply from hydroelectricity