Written evidence submitted by Dr Franck
Düvell, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society
Turkey once was a major sending country of migrants
but now rather is a receiving and transit country. There are up
to 3.7 million ethnic Turks in the European Union (EU). Of these,
1.3 million hold EU passports and 200,000-240,000 reside in the
UK. Annual emigration to Europe has dropped significantly to below
50,000 plus circa 7,000 asylum applications. For around four years,
however, net migration between Turkey and the EU has been negative,
with more people emigrating from the EU to Turkey than vice versa.
In Turkey there are 1.3 million foreign-born residents and 18,000
refugees. Travel to and from Turkey has almost doubled since 2001
to 27 million arrivals and departures each, of which one third
are Turkish citizens.
The UK has never been a prime destination for Turkish
migrants. In 2009, 178,000 Turkish nationals were given leave
to enter; whilst 1.8 million passengers from the United Kingdom
(UK) to Turkey were recorded only 98,000 passengers from Turkey
to the UK were recorded. Turkey is undergoing a demographic transition;
its population will grow from 75 to 90 million, begin ageing around
2025 and start decreasing after 2050. Turkey's economy is constantly
growing. Between 2000 and 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose
by 80% and rose by a further 6% in 2010. The employment rate is
46% and unemployment is around 15%.
FACTS
Migration to and from Turkey[11]
— Until
the 1990s, Turkey was commonly referred to as an emigration country,
primarily of labour migrants and their families and secondly of
refugees migrating to the EU. Since 2007, however, the migration
balance between Turkey and the EU has been negative. For example,
since 2006, more Turks migrate from Germany to Turkey annually
than vice versa, 27,200 versus 35,400 in 2009 (BAMF 2010). Returnees
are often highly-skilled (Deutsche Welle 2011). Emigration from
Turkey dropped from the mid-1990s to present day to below 50,000.
Also the characteristics of migrants changed, labour migrants
are now overwhelmingly highly skilled; one third of this number
is family related migration. Labour migration to the EU largely
ceased in the 1970s and 1980s. Currently, most Turkish contract
labour migrants (59,000 in 2009), usually highly skilled, are
in the CIS, Middle East/North Africa and Gulf countries. Forced
migration has also dropped significantly to annually around 7,000
asylum applications in the EU (UNHCR 2009).
— In
Europe there are around 3.7 million Turks (ICT 2004), the largest
single immigrant group in the EU. Of this number, 2,481 million
are Turkish passport holders and 1,271 million are EU passport
holders. Of the Turkish passport holders 146,000 are refugees
in the EU (UNHCR 2010). Turkish nationals are to be distinguished
by ethnic Turks, Kurds and some ethnic Arabs. They are religiously
diverse. Sunni represent the largest group, and Alevis are the
largest minority. Another religious minority are the Yazidi.
— Turkey
is also an immigration country. In 2000, the date of the latest
census, there were 1,278,671 foreign-born residents in Turkey,
of which about one quarter were from EU countries (State Institute
of Statistics 2003). In 2009, there were 205,000 regular and irregular
immigrants (Icduygu 2010).
Turkey receives increasing numbers of migrants and
refugees. Labour migrants mostly come from Bulgaria, Moldova,
Ukraine and Russia. From 1997 to 2008, 69,600 people applied for
asylum. In January 2010, there were 10,350 refugees, 5,987 asylum
seekers and 2,739 stateless persons. The majority comes from other
countries in the Middle East, such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran
(all data from Icduygu and Yükseker 2011, UNHCR 2010).
Moreover, Turkey has become a popular destination
for European retirees, in particularly from the UK, Germany, the
Netherlands and Scandinavia.
Irregular migration to Turkey has dropped to 34,000
apprehensions in 2009, one third of the peak in 2000.
— Finally,
Turkey is a prominent stepping stone for transit migrants from
more distant countries. Between 1995 and 2009, 794,937 irregular
immigrants were apprehended (IOM 2010). In 2010, around 43,000
migrants and refugees transited Turkey and were apprehended in
Greece (Frontex). Transit migration is to some extent driven by
(a) Turkey's geographic reservation to its refuge law, only European
refugees are recognised, and (b) the absence of immigrant or refugee
integration policies.
Migration between Turkey and the UK
— According
to the 2001 census, there are 61,000 ethnic Turks and Kurds in
the UK, 33,000 of which are Turkish passport holders. Data kept
on local level suggest far higher numbers; instead, 200,000-240,000
Turkish and Turkish-Cypriot people could be residing in the UK.
Thus Turks in the UK represent 1.9-6.5%of the EU total.
— On
average 84,576 visa applications were filed annually from 2005
to 2009, 3.5% of all applications in 2009; of all applications
92.3% were approved. Of the 178,000 Turkish nationals given leave
to enter in 2009, 66,300 were returnees after temporary absence
abroad, 64,700 were visitors, 28,300 were business visitors, 9,755
were tier 4 students plus dependents, 1,145 came for employment
and 945 for family purposes (Home Office/RDS).
In 2009, 98,000 passengers from Turkey arrived in
the UK, a decrease of almost 50% from 2006 (151,000). Of these,
27.5% visited friends and family, 27.5% came for holiday, 32.5%
came for business and 13% for miscellaneous reasons. The average
stay was 14 nights, Turkish visitors' spending per day is as high
as spending of EU-27 visitors (£68/day); this demonstrates
that behave spend is like the average European visitor. In the
same year, 1.8 million UK residents travelled to Turkey, the tenth
most popular destination (ONS 2010).
Turkish asylum applications dropped from 3,990 in
2000 to 185 in 2009 (Home Office/RDS).
In 2009, 985 enforcement actions (removals and voluntary
returns) were initiated (40% were asylum cases), 1.5% of the total
and down from 1,730 in 2007 (ibid).
Demographic
— From
1950 to 2000, Turkey's population grew by 30 million to around
75 million.[12]
It will continue to grow to 88-90 million around 2050 and will
then probably start decreasing (Haceteppe University Institute
of Population Studies 2008, OECD 2010c). By around 2025, fertility
rates will have fallen to or below replacement level but because
life expectancy will increase Turkey's population will continue
to grow until around 2050 but will be ageing.
— Demographic
developments in Turkey are uneven and the country is characterised
by an East-West divide and a growing East and an ageing West.
This has consequences for internal migration and East-West migration
is significant. Due to the demand by ageing populations in the
West for labour, internal migration will remain high and large
proportions of the population growth will be absorbed internally.
Ageing and demand for labour will also increase the demand for
immigrant labour.
— By
2025, only eight of the 27 EU countries and 18 Eastern European
and former Soviet Union countries will enjoy natural population
growth, including Turkey. Thus any policy that considers replacement
migration as a response to its ageing and shrinking populations
will only be able to regionally draw on a small number of countries
where populations are still young and growing.
Economy
— Over
the past 30 years Turkey's economy has changed drastically. In
1970, 87% of exports were agricultural products (Krueger 1974)
whereas now 51.3% of Turkish exports are intermediate goods, such
as vehicle parts, and another 35.6% are consumption goods (Türkstat
2010).
— From
2000 to 2008 Turkey's GDP rose by 80% and is, for example, 50%
higher than the GDP of Poland.[13]
Turkey is strongly recovering from the 2009 crisis.
In the same period foreign direct investment (FDI)
has increased 10-fold.
According to latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) reports "Turkey's economic growth
is likely to be among the strongest of OECD countries in 2010,
supported by financial stability, international investor confidence
and a dynamic business sector." GDP growth is expected at
6% and unemployment and underemployment, which had been falling
since 2006, rocketed in 2009 to 14% (3.4 million) but this figure
"is likely to fall markedly" (OECD 2010a, Icduygu 2010).
The informal economy represents around 30% of the GDP (GIB 2008).
— So
far, employment rates are low, 46% in total (men 60%, women 20%),
43% of all employment is informal (GIB 2008). "Economy fails
to make satisfactory use of its labour resources. Employment in
industry and services does not grow strongly enough to absorb
the rapidly growing working-age population and the high rate of
migration from rural areas. Consequently, the employment rate,
at just above 40%, remains the lowest in the OECD area".
(OECD 2010b: 8).
CONCLUSION
To sum up, migration from, to and through Turkey
is more diverse than commonly assumed. Thus, Turkey is now more
correctly referred to as an emigration, immigration and transit
country. Net migration between Turkey and the EU is already negative
and since 2009 Turkey is probably already a positive net-immigration
country (CIA 2010a). There are no current signs of a migration
pressure from Turkey. Simultaneously, the decrease in migration
coincides with an increase in mobility/travel and one seems to
replace the other. Also, internal migration opportunities make
international migration almost redundant. But as long as Turkey
does not grant asylum to non-Europeans transit migration of migrants
and refugees will continue.
There are no strong or extended migration systems,
networks or traditions that link together the UK and Turkey that
would facilitate EU-accession related migration. But accession
related migration from Turkey to the UK will depend on the policies
of other EU member states and whether or not these admit or do
not admit free travel, if other countries admit free movements
fewer will chose the UK and vice versa.
Turkey's population will increase significantly though
the working-age population will start to decrease around 2025.
Strong economic and employment growth absorbs some but not all
working-age population. Thus, at present neither natives or immigrants
are absorbed by the labour markets in sufficient levels. But according
to the OECD there is huge potential for economic and employment
growth provided that labour, product and finance market regulations
are reformed.
REFERENCES
Bundesamt fur Migration und Flüchtlinge, diverse
years, Migrationsbericht, Nuremberg: BAMF; CIA 2010b, The
World factbook, Washington: CIA; Gelir Idaresi Baskanligi
[Revenue Administration] 2008, Action plan of strategy for
fight against informal economy, Ankara:GIB; Haceteppe University
Institute of Population Studies 2008, Turkey demographic and
health survey 2008, Ankara: Haceteppe University Institute
of Population Studies; Home Office 2010, Control of immigration
statistics, London: Home Office; Icduygu, Ahmet 2010, Turkey
and international migration, 2009,
OECD Sopemi report for Turkey, 2009-10,
Istanbul: Koc University; Icduygu, Ahmet, Yükseker Denis
2011, Rethinking transit migration in Turkey: reality and
re-presentation in the creation of a migratory phenomenon,
Population, Space and Place (forthcoming); Independent Commission
on Turkey 2004, Europe: More than a promise? Brussels:
ICT; IOM 2010, Study on Migration, Employment and Labour Market
Integration Policies in the European Union, Geneva: IOM; OECD
2010a, Turkey: Recovery a chance to reinforce long-term economic
growth, says OECD, 15.9.2010, OECD: Paris; OECD 2010b, OECD
economic surveys: Turkey September 2010. Overview, Paris:
OECD; Office of national Statistics 2010, International Passenger
Survey 2010, London: ONS; Türkstat 2010, Turkish Statistical
Institute Data Tables, Ankara: Turkish Statistical Institute;
UNHCR 2009, Asylum trends and levels in industrialized countries,
New York: UNHCR; UNHCR 2010, 2010 UNHCR country operations
profile—Turkey, UNHCR: Ankara.
March 2011
11 Turkish migration statistics are of a notoriously
low quality and figures are often contradictory. Back
12
Rank five among the OECD countries, behind USA, Japan, Mexico
and Germany. Back
13
On the OECD scale Turkey ranks 26 out of 40 countries Back
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