30 Mar 2010 : Column 7MC

Ministerial Corrections

Tuesday 30 March 2010

Justice

Prisoners Release

Mr. Grieve: To ask the Secretary of State for Justice what estimate he has made of the size of the prison population in each month up to the end of 2015 following ending of the End of Custody Licence Scheme. [320059]

[Official Report, 8 March 2010, Vol. 507, c. 94-96W.]

Letter of correction from Mr. Jack Straw:

An error has been identified in the written answer given to the hon. and learned Member for Beaconsfield (Mr. Grieve) on 8 March 2010. The error occurred in the figures given for the period December 2012 to June 2015 relating to the "high" projection.

The correct answer should have been;

Mr. Straw: The Ministry of Justice produces annual projections of the prison population in England and Wales, most recently in August 2009. These project the prison population under three different scenarios, based on different assumptions about future sentencing trends.

Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios. These cover the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables. These assumptions and anticipated impacts have remained unchanged since 2008 projections.

End of Custody Licence (ECL) was introduced on 29 June 2007. Under this scheme a prisoner who was given a determinate custodial sentence between four weeks and four years can be released on licence up to 18 days before the end of their sentence.

Because there was no agreed timetable for its conclusion, its effect was included throughout the projection period. In the second half of 2009, the caseload of prisoners on ECL has been between 1,000 and 1,200:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/endofcustodylicence.htm

The scheme ends on 12 March this year as it was recently announced. As result of this, it is expected that by the end of March 2010, the prison population will be 1,000 to 1,200 higher than was anticipated in the current published prison population projections.

This effect will carry on from March 2010 estimates onwards. Here are last year's projections plus 1,200:

30 Mar 2010 : Column 8MC

30 Mar 2010 : Column 9MC

Number
	High	Medium	Low
2010
March	86,000	85,400	84,700
April	86,200	85,600	84,800
May	86,200	85,500	84,600
June	86,900	86,100	85,100
July	87,800	86,900	85,900
August	87,600	86,700	85,600
September	87,900	86,900	85,600
October	88,000	86,900	85,600
November	88,500	87,300	86,000
December	86,800	85,600	84,100
2011
January	87,700	86,400	84,800
February	88,000	86,600	84,900
March	89,000	87,600	85,800
April	88,900	87,300	85,500
May	89,200	87,500	85,600
June	89,800	88,100	86,100
July	90,400	88,600	86,500
August	90,400	88,500	86,400
September	90,500	88,600	86,400
October	90,600	88,600	86,400
November	90,800	88,700	86,400
December	88,600	86,400	84,000
2012
January	89,700	87,500	85,000
February	90,600	88,300	85,800
March	90,800	88,500	85,900
April	90,900	88,500	85,800
May	91,200	88,700	85,900
June	91,400	88,900	86,100
July	91,900	89,200	86,300
August	91,800	89,100	86,100
September	91,900	89,100	86,000
October	91,900	89,100	86,000
November	92,000	89,000	85,900
December	89,700	86,700	83,400
2013
January	90,700	87,700	84,300
February	91,600	88,500	85,100
March	91,800	88,600	85,100
April	91,800	88,500	85,000
May	92,100	88,700	85,100
June	92,300	88,800	85,200
July	92,700	89,200	85,400
August	92,600	89,000	85,200
September	92,700	89,000	85,100
October	92,700	89,000	85,000
November	92,800	89,000	85,000
December	90,600	86,700	82,600
2014
January	91,700	87,700	83,500
February	92,600	88,600	84,300
March	92,900	88,800	84,500
April	93,000	88,800	84,400
May	93,200	89,000	84,500
June	93,600	89,200	84,700
July	94,000	89,600	85,000
August	94,000	89,500	84,800
September	94,100	89,600	84,800
October	94,200	89,600	84,800
November	94,400	89,700	84,800
December	92,100	87,400	82,400
2015
January	93,200	88,400	83,400
February	94,200	89,300	84,200
March	94,500	89,500	84,300
April	94,600	89,500	84,300
May	94,800	89,700	84,400
June	95,100	89,900	84,500
Note: These figures will be revised in this year (2010) publication.

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