House of Commons - Education and Skills

Select Committee on Education and Skills Written Evidence

Memorandum submitted by Stephen Gorard, Beng Huat See, and Patrick White, Cardiff University School of Social Sciences

1. INTRODUCTION

The following sections contain a brief summary of a fuller report prepared by Cardiff University for the General Teaching Council of Wales on the issues of teacher supply and retention, 2002. The full report is available from the authors. In this summary we have removed figures, tables and issues relevant only to Wales or only to primary schools, but present a subset of the remaining figures relating to England, England and Wales, or the UK. We have also removed sections relating to research literature review, detailed methods, sources of data, and recommendations for future policy, research, and data collection. Where appropriate we have, however, retained the bullet point summaries of these sections. All of the data presented is official, and is presented for as many years as available. Bodies, such as the DfES, are referred to by their previous names whenever the data relates to that previous period. Our re-analysis shows that media, policy-makers, and even researchers commentaries on the recent teacher "crisis" are misleading, based perhaps on consideration of too small a picture of teacher supply and retention.

2. SUMMARY

There is no overall crisis in either the demand for, or supply of, teachers. No single indicator of teacher demand, including vacancies and pupil:teacher ratios, is sufficient in isolation. Vacancy rates largely represent a snapshot of teacher turnover within the profession, and are high when funding levels to schools are high. They are often inversely related to pupil:teacher ratios, which themselves do not translate easily into class sizes because of local differences in the number and organisation of schools.

Vacancies

Vacancy rates are highest in the secondary sector.

In England, the vacancy rate was at its lowest recorded level in 1997, and has since shown a slight increase.

This increase is most obvious in Maths, Science and Technology posts.

In England and Wales, secondary sector vacancy rates are highest in Careers (4% but very small numbers) and Maths (2%).

Corresponding vacancies in England and Wales are lowest in humanities, social sciences and PE.

Vacancy rates in England vary between different types of secondary school.

Vacancies in England are especially high in London.

Nevertheless, a large number of trained teachers in England are unemployed or not employed as teachers.

Teacher and pupil numbers

In England and Wales there has been a huge growth in the numbers of both pupils and teachers since 1970.

Teacher numbers are not clearly linked to pupil numbers—for example, the number of teachers employed in the primary sector continued to increase from 1996 to 2000 when primary pupil numbers dropped slightly.

Since 1999, the growth in teacher numbers in England has been greater than the growth in pupil numbers.

Pupil:teacher ratios (PTRs)

In England, PTRs in primary and secondary schools fell almost every year from 1947 to 1989.

The lowest PTR ever recorded in England was in 1990, and there has since been a subsequent small rise.

PTRs cannot be simply converted into class sizes due to differences over time and place in school organisation.

In 1998, the UK PTR in secondary schools was lower than in comparable developed countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Korea and the Netherlands.

In England, vacancies were inversely related to PTRs over the period 1985 to 2002.

In 2002, vacancies were highest in London, where the PTR was smallest, and lowest in rural areas, where the PTR was highest.

Class sizes

In England class sizes increased from 20.7 in 1990 to 22.2 in 2000 (despite the above drop in vacancies).

There is considerable variation of class sizes between schools and regions.

Inner London has the largest class sizes, but the lowest PTRs, and so PTR is not necessarily converted to small classes—perhaps due to administration, school sizes, and so on.

Indicators for teacher supply are more crucially effected by the setting of targets, rather than the availability of potential trainees, or the demand figures (see above). Although there are problems for some subjects, the number of applicants per place and the high rejection rate for mature applicants suggest that, overall, trainee numbers can be increased simply by increasing the funding and targets (if desired).

Targets

In England and Wales, in 2001-02, ITET recruitment did not meet targets in subjects such as Maths, Science and Languages.

This was despite a downwards revision of targets for maths and science in 1998 and 1999.

It is suggested that targets are primarily governed by cost factors and economic prospects, rather than demand.

Targets in England and Wales have been reduced even in years when pupil numbers were rising.

Regional problems might still exist if targets were met, as the DfEE calculated targets at the national level only. No evidence was found to suggest that practices have since changed.

ITET recruitment is generally more difficult in periods of high employment.

In 2002, employers reported a general difficulty in recruiting Maths and Science graduates.

One limit on ITET recruitment in shortage areas of the curriculum is the number of students studying these subjects at A-level and as undergraduates.

It was estimated, in 2001, that around 40% of all languages graduates would need to enrol in ITET to meet current targets. Similar figures have been quoted for maths and RE.

There is a growth in numbers of HE students, but an absolute decline in those studying some shortage subjects.

Therefore, the key problem is not in teacher supply, but in graduate supply. Relaxing the requirements for purported "specialisation" in secondary training would assist (economics graduates can make excellent maths teachers, for example).

Course completion

In England and Wales in 1999-2000, 17% of PGCE students did not successfully complete their training.

Over 29% of PGCE completers in England and Wales did not subsequently take teaching posts.

It was estimated that, in 1999, only 50% of original applicants and 60% of those entering training, in England and Wales, consequently took up teaching posts.

There is a growth in the number of new entrants to teaching, but a decline in the number of those who return after a career break.

As a percentage of all entrants to full-time teaching in England and Wales, the proportion of NQTs increased from 46.8% to 61.8% between 1990 and 2000.

Turnover

"Turnover" is defined by the School Teachers' Review Body (STRB) as the number of resignations from post.

Teacher turnover in England and Wales doubled from 1994 to 2001. Most of this represented teachers moving from one LEA school to another (see vacancies).

In 2000, in England and Wales, turnover was greatest in London at 16.5% (where vacancy rates are therefore higher).

In England and Wales, in 2000, turnover was greater among females (at 13.5%) than males (11.95%).

Relatively high vacancy rates would be expected at any moment in time, due to teachers moving between posts, making vacancy rates a poor indicator of teacher supply.

"Wastage" rates and retirement

"Wastage rate", as defined by the DfES, is misleading, as it includes those moving to the further and higher education sectors, independent schools, and/or to part-time service.

In England and Wales, between 1990 and 2000, "wastage rates" between primary and secondary sectors varied in unison. There is no clear explanation for this synchronicity.

Over this period, wastage was lower in the secondary sector than the primary and nursery sectors.

In England and Wales, 8-10% of teachers in service left the profession each year between 1990 and 2000.

In England and Wales, many (58%) of those leaving the profession in 1999-2000 were aged less than 40.

In England and Wales, between 1994 and 2001, there was a small but increasing flow of teachers to independent schools, overseas, and to other employment.

In England and Wales, before 1998, the outflow from teaching, for all reasons, exceeded the inflow. Since 1998 this has reversed.

There were a large number of early retirements in England and Wales in 1997-98, perhaps due to changes in the Teachers' Pension Scheme in April 1997.

Quality of teachers

It was reported in 1997 that, in England and Wales, there was considerable variation in entry qualifications to ITET by subject. Trainees in maths and Science tended to have the lowest qualifications.

In England and Wales, between 1990 and 2000, there has been a growth in PGCE applicants with first and second class degrees (from 82.3% to 91.7%) but this growth is in line with national trends for HE.

Other issues

Between 1985 and 1999 the proportion of female full-time secondary school teachers in England and Wales increased from 46% to 53.4%.

To redress this imbalance, potential solutions include attracting more men into teaching and attracting more women to study shortage subjects as undergraduates and at A-level.

In England and Wales, in 2000, the most common age for full-time teachers was 45-54. Very few teachers were aged 55+, perhaps due to early retirement

In the same year, relatively few teachers were in their 30s.

The proportion of male and female teachers in their 30s was roughly equal, but in the <25 and 25-29 age groups females far out-numbered males. This is perhaps due to maternity and child-rearing.

But in 2001 applicants in their 30s were also those least likely to be accepted onto PGCE courses in the UK.

In Wales, in 2000-01, 2% of the population were from minority ethnic groups, compared to only 1% of ITET students and nearly 4% of first year higher education students.

None of these ITET students described themselves as belonging to "black" minority ethnic groups.

In Wales, in 2000-01, students with disabilities were also under-represented on ITET courses, at 4% of all trainees. This includes students registered as dyslexic.

This compares with an estimated 11% of the economically active UK population.

In England, funding per pupil was 10% greater in 1999-2000 than it was in 1995-96. However, between these dates it fluctuated.

In England, between 1995 and 2000, there was a strong correlation between the number of schools and the number of teacher vacancies.

Some implications for policy

There are currently many more applicants for ITET than places available, meaning that places could still be filled if targets were increased.

It is not clear that the vacancy rate represents more than a snapshot of turnover: ie teachers moving from post to post. High vacancies can be a sign of a healthy profession.

To be representative, the profession needs more men, more older trainees, more disabled trainees, and trainees from minority ethnic groups.

More variation in what are considered relevant qualifications and/or experience may encourage mature applicants to ITET. This could address the "shortfall" of teachers aged 30 to 40.

A key loss of potential teachers occurs in the transition from training to school.

Keeping school numbers to a minimum can lead to a more efficient use of teachers and thus avoid shortages.

Minimising bureaucratic and managerial tasks for teachers may help maximise the use of teachers' time.

2. THE DEMAND FOR TEACHERS

2.1 Indicators of teacher numbers

The number of qualified teachers varies over time for both demographic and economic reasons, while the demand for teachers also fluctuates according to demographic shifts and as a result of policy changes. However, teacher supply cannot be calculated merely by using data on the number of teachers available and the number of pupils needing to be served. Because of competing views on the indicators of teacher supply and demand, there have been disagreements, in the past and in recent years, between teacher representatives and the Government over whether there was a teacher supply "crisis" (Grace 1991, House of Commons First Report 1997a, 1997b, House of Commons Select Committee on Education and Employment 2000). The most commonly used measure of teacher shortages is the number of vacant posts expressed as a percentage of the total number of posts (House of Commons 1997a, paragraph 21). However, because of the factors discussed above, alternative indicators are used in this report where possible.

2.2 Teacher vacancies

Teacher vacancies are perhaps the most direct measure of teacher shortages. They may not necessarily mean that there are too few teachers per se, but can indicate that there may be a mismatch between the teachers available for work and the types of posts needed to be filled. It is possible for teacher unemployment to co-exist with vacant posts, as it does today. Data on teacher vacancies must, therefore, be examined more closely before it is possible to identify exactly which types of teaching staff are required to address any shortfall.

Vacancies here refer to advertised vacancies for full-time appointments of at least one term's duration. Vacancy rates refer to vacancies as a percentage of teachers in post which includes full-time regular teachers in (or on secondment from) maintained schools, plus the full-time regular divided service, peripatetic, remedial centre and miscellaneous teachers. It is important to be aware that an alternative definition of "vacancies" is sometimes used. This counts "vacancies" as posts that have not been filled three months after they were first advertised. This is, perhaps, more in line with the conventional use of the term and the confusion of the two definitions may have lead to misinterpretations of the teacher supply situation in the media.

2.2.1 Vacancies in England and Wales

Table 2.1 shows the vacancy rates for teachers in secondary schools in England and Wales, disaggregated by subject. The vacancy rates represent the proportion of unfilled, full-time equivalent (FTE) posts for each subject, expressed as a percentage. Vacancy data were available as frequencies only for 2001. However, the data for this year allow a judgement to be made regarding the scale of vacancy rates in absolute terms. For example, in 2001, careers was the subject area with the highest vacancy rate, at 4%. But this represented a recruitment shortfall of only nine teachers, because the absolute number of careers teachers required is small compared to other subjects. In contrast, figures for the same year show a vacancy rate of just 1.5% in sciences, representing 407 unfilled vacancies. As these examples illustrate, where possible, frequencies must be used in conjunction with the vacancy rates to interpret the actual scale of the phenomenon they represent.

The most obvious trend shown in Table 2.1 is the increase in the overall vacancy rate in England and Wales, combined, by more than a factor of three (from 0.4% in 1997 to 1.4% in 2001). In terms of individual subjects, all vacancy rates were higher in 2001 than they had been in 1997. However, not all subject area vacancy rates rose each year. Vacancy rates in maths and sciences, the subject areas with the highest numbers of vacancies, rose each year, as did those for IT. There are other subjects, notably English and languages, that also have relatively high numbers of vacancies, but not year-on-year rises in vacancy rates. Both of these subject areas experienced a fall in vacancy rates between 1998 and 1999, rising again in the following two years. Vacancy rates fell in five other subjects (geography, religious education, design technology and careers) between 1998 and 1999.

Table 2.1

VACANCY RATES (%) FOR CLASSROOM TEACHERS IN SECONDARY SCHOOLS, BY SUBJECT, ENGLAND AND WALES, JANUARY 1997 TO JANUARY 2001


	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2001(n)

Maths	0.4	0.7	0.8	1.2	2	421
IT	0.4	0.7	0.9	1.2	2.7	126
Sciences	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	1.5	407
Languages	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.7	1.5	250
English	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.6	1.7	366
Drama	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.6	1.6	60
History	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5	39
Social Sciences	0.2	0	0.1	0.2	0.4	15
Geography	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.6	54
Religious Education	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.7	1.8	103
DT	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.7	1.2	206
Commerce/business	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.5	1.2	42
Art, craft or design	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.7	49
Music	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.8	82
PE	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.8	104
Careers	0.9	1.8	0.9	1.4	4	9
Other	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.1	1.6	199
Overall	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.4	2,532

Source: DfES annual 618G survey and NAfW annual Stats3 survey

Note: Data for 1996 was available but, as the method of calculating vacancy rates changed in 1997, it was omitted.

2.2.2 Vacancies in England

In England the lowest level of teacher vacancies in the last decade was experienced between 1992 and 2000, after a period of very high vacancies between 1985 and 1990. The much talked about impending "crisis" was in fact the rise between 1995 and 2001, to its highest level since 1990. However, the growth in vacancies started from a low level, climbed slowly at first before rising rapidly in 2000. Up until this year, however, vacancies were still well below levels witnessed in the late 1908s (see Figure 2.1).

Between 1998 and 2001 teacher numbers rose by 3.9% while pupil numbers increased by 5.1%, and this period saw one of the most dramatic increase in teacher vacancies, from 970 to 2,590—rising by 267% over a three year period. It was only in 2002 that teacher vacancies started to ease, falling to 2,440. This was in part due to the narrowing of the gap between teacher and pupil numbers. Pupil numbers increased by 2.5% between 2000 and 2002 while teacher numbers increased by almost 4%. The related issue of pupil:teacher ratios is discussed in detail later.

2.2.3 Variation between School Types

Table 2.2 suggests that finding teachers is more of a problem for some kinds of secondary schools than others. One explanation for this is that there is variation in the perceived desirability of working in each of these types of institution. Secondary modern schools have the highest vacancy rate, whilst independent (fee-paying) schools have the lowest. The former may still suffer from being viewed as a "second class" institution type, a hang-over from the days of the tri-partite system of secondary education, and the latter have traditionally been seen as "high status" (although the reality may differ somewhat from public perceptions: see Gorard, 1997).

Table 2.2

UNFILLED VACANCIES BY SCHOOL TYPE, ENGLAND AND WALES, 2001


Secondary modern	21%
Comprehensive	18%
Selective	16%
Sixth form colleges	12%
Independent	5%

Source: STRB (2002)

2.2.4 Geographical Variation

Although secondary vacancy rates in England and Wales had risen from 0.3% in 1995 to 1.4% in 2001, rates for Wales increased at a much slower rate from 0.2% to 0.5% (STRB 2002). All economic regions of England reported an increase in vacancy rates between 1995 and 2001, the biggest increase being in London, the South-East and the East of England (STRB 2001). Table 2.3 shows that the problem is most obviously one for London.

Table 2.3

UNFILLED VACANCIES BY REGION, ENGLAND AND WALES, 2001


Inner London	29%
Outer London	24%
West Midlands	17%
South-east	16%
East Midlands	15%
South-east	14%
North-west	13%
North Yorks.	13%
North-east	12%
Wales	11%

Source: STRB (2002)

In 1999 there were 16,000 trained teachers registered as seeking work, many more unemployed but not receiving Jobseeker's Allowance, and more again in other employment who would prefer to be teaching (TES 2002). Therefore, the problem of vacancies, in so far as there is one, is of regional and subject dispersion, rather than total numbers.

2.3 Teacher Numbers and Pupil Numbers

The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) qualified teachers in England increased from 161,200 to 232,500 from 1970 to 1980. This growth corresponded with an increase in pupil numbers from approximately 2.9 million to 3.9 million (DfEE Bulletin, 2000). Between 1985 and 1998 the number of full-time secondary school teachers in England and Wales fell by 21% (Social Trends 30, 2000) from 237 thousand to 188 thousand. From 1980 onwards pupil numbers also declined to 2.85 million in 1991, the lowest level since 1970. They increased to 3.26 million by 2002, at the same time as a marked increase in teacher numbers. This is significant because, as teacher demand is determined in part by the target pupil:teacher ratio, in order to maintain the existing pupil:teacher ratios more teachers were needed. This explains the increasing teacher vacancies, and perhaps the beginning of the recent "crisis". Since 1999, however, the growth rate of teachers has been greater than that for pupils (see below) and the number of pupils has been predicted to decline over the next 10 years. It would seem that, in spite of what the media may have portrayed, teacher numbers in 2000 were not at their lowest ever level (Slater, 2000a).

2.4 Pupil:teacher ratios

Figure 2.3 shows the Pupil:teacher ratios (PTRs) for primary and secondary schools in England from 1947 to 2002. As Smithers and Robinson (1991) note, from the mid-1950s until the late 1980s (the latest point for which they have data) the PTR, calculated from aggregate data, decreased steadily, on almost a year-on-year basis. From 1990, however, the PTR began to increase until, after reaching a mini-peak in 2000, falling for two consecutive years.

Adapted from: DfES, (2002a). NB Data collected in January each year.

However, the average PTRs tell us nothing about the size of actual classes. By its very nature aggregate data disguises variation within the system. The DfES (2002a, p 7) also caution that "while the number of teachers employed relative to the number of pupils enrolled will have an affect on class sizes, not all teachers will necessarily be in the classroom at any one time." (DfES, 2002a, p 7). Smithers and Robinson (1991, p 103) note that although class size is an important issue in relation to the staffing of schools, it is not ". . . principally a teacher supply problem. It is, in part, a matter of policy, and, in part, a management problem to be resolved by management action". Solutions to any perceived "problems" with teacher recruitment and retention do not necessarily have to come from the "supply" end of the equation. Changing the organisation of schooling can have more direct impacts on the requirements (or "demand") of the system itself (see below).

Average PTRs in English secondary schools increased annually from 15.3 (at its lowest) in 1991 to 17.2 (the highest in 25 years) in 2000, before falling to 16.9 in 2002. However, all of these scores are lower than the highest pupil:teacher ratio in secondary schools, which was 21.8 pupils for every teacher in 1948. Comparative data collected by the OECD (2000) shows that average secondary PTRs in the UK (16.9) in 1998 were lower than many other developed countries, such as Canada (22.1), New Zealand (21), Korea (22.8) and the Netherlands (18.5).

In reality, it is difficult to say when there may be a teacher shortage because the two commonly used indicators of teacher supply (PTRs and teacher vacancies) may not move in the same direction (see Figure 2.4). For example, when teacher vacancies were highest, in 1989 and 1990, PTR was lowest at 15.3 pupils for every teacher. The common perception at that time was that there was a severe teacher shortage, if not a crisis. In contrast, PTRs increased from 15.3 to 16.5 between 1990 and 1995, coinciding with the period of lowest teacher vacancies. Although PTRs were high, the perception was that there was no shortage of teachers.

The 2002 data show that areas with higher teacher vacancy figures, such as Inner and Outer London and the South-east, operate with correspondingly low pupil:teacher ratios, and areas with low teacher vacancies, such as North-east and South-west England, operate with higher ratios. As PTRs do not necessarily reflect the deployment of teachers within schools (DfES Statistical First Release, 2002a paragraph 5), some commentators believe that class sizes are a better indicator of teacher shortages. In England, average class sizes in secondary schools increased from 20.7 pupils in 1990 to 22.2 in 2000, before falling slightly to 22.0 in 2002, roughly in line with PTRs.

There is significant regional variation in class size, with Inner London and the South-East having larger class sizes than other areas of the UK. At first glance it seems reasonable to expect these schools to have larger class sizes, because they had been widely accepted as having the highest teacher vacancies and experiencing the most difficulties filling them. Close analysis, however, revealed that these schools had more teachers than schools in other regions (Slater 2002). By contrast, the East of England and the East Midlands had smaller classes than would be expected given the staffing levels. For example, one school had the lowest PTR in the country, but was ranked only 63rd by class size, whilst a neighbouring school ranked 18th on PTR and 16th on class size. According to the National Association of Schoolmasters/Union of Women Teachers (NASUWT), the gap between class sizes and staffing in similar authorities occurred because "teachers were doing less teaching and more administration" (Slater 2002). This is clearly an administrative or management issue rather than a policy or demographic problem.

4. TEACHER RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION

3.1 Recruitment to Initial Teacher Education and Training

There is no problem with recruitment to BEd courses, with institutions regularly exceeding their targets (see full report). Therefore, what follows focus on recruitment via postgraduate routes. Figure 3.1 shows applications for PGCE courses in the UK, for the years 1994 to 2001. This first important point is that between these years both applications and acceptances have experienced a net gain. Applications rose from 32,389 in 1994 to 40,895 in 2001.

In the same period (1994 to 2001), acceptances rose from 17,733 to 22,223 with the lowest point being 17,209 in 1995. As can be seen in Table 3.1, they do not appear to follow a particular trend, nor are they related to the total number of applications. In the period studied, acceptance rates remained between 51% and 59%, ending up, in 2001, 1% lower than the 1994 rate.

Table 3.1

PERCENTAGE OF ACCEPTED APPLICANTS


year	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001

apps	32,389	33,831	33,920	33,612	31,555	32,914	36,065	40,895
accept	17,733	17,209	18,332	19,297	18,394	19,007	21,230	22,223
% acc	55	51	54	57	58	58	59	54

Source: Adapted from GTTR (2001, 2002)

At the UK level, many more female than male students apply to take PGCE courses. In 1994, for example, 20,236 applications were made by females compared to only 12,153 by males. Table 3.2 reveals that the percentage of female applications increased from 62% in 1994 to 68% in 2001. Thus, in addition to the general trend of a rise in applications over the period studied, it is also the case that the proportion of female applicants rose slightly.

Table 3.2

PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE PGCE APPLICANTS (UK)


year	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001

All	32,389	33,831	33,920	33,612	31,555	32,914	36,065	40,895
female	20,236	21,741	22,176	22,400	21,523	22,564	25,009	27,989
female %	62	64	65	67	68	69	69	68

Source: GTTR (2001, 2002)

In every GTTR age category apart from "51+", female applicants significantly out-numbered males, particularly in the younger age groups (Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.3 shows that younger applicants not only account for a disproportionate number of applications but also have a more favourable acceptance rate. This has implications for any strategies aimed at ameliorating short-term imbalances in the age profile of the teaching profession. There is a substantial number of applicants in their thirties. However, it is important to note that of 5,954 applicants aged 31-40 (not counting those who withdrew) 2,273 did not get allocated PGCE places, whereas that it is teachers of this precisely age who are under-represented in the profession as a whole. Policy makers wishing to increase the number of teachers in the maintained sector may be advised to investigate the (low) acceptance rates for applicants of this age on PGCE courses, and also to examine comparable data for ITET First Degree courses.

It may be the case that, for example, older applicants tend generally to have lower qualifications or less desirable curricula vitae than younger ones. However, this may have more to do with historical circumstances than suitability for teacher training. Indeed, higher education institutions often apply different entry criteria to mature applicants wishing to study on undergraduate courses. If policy makers wish to redress the imbalanced age profile of the teaching population, a thorough investigation into this issue would be a good place to start.

3.2 Recruitment Targets

Another indication of success (or otherwise) in teacher recruitment is the extent to which the Government's targets are met (House of Commons 1997, Vol I, para 13). In 2001-02 recruitment showed a significant improvement on the previous academic year. Recruitment rose in all subjects with the exception of Welsh, art and religious education (STRB 2002). However, for most subjects the intake was still below the targets (see Figure 3.4).

The intake targets for maths, science and technology had previously been revised downwards, even though vacancies for these subjects had been increasing. In maths, for example, the target was reduced from 2,700 in 1996 to 1,691 in 1997. This represented a drop of approximately 40%, even though only 65.6% of the target was met in 1996. In 1997, despite the huge reduction, only 62.9% of the revised target was met. It was not until 2000 that intake targets for these subjects were raised.

The reduction in intake targets was implemented against the backdrop of an increasing student population in secondary schools, rising pupil:teacher ratios and increased teacher vacancies. The number of full-time equivalent (FTE) pupils in secondary maintained schools in England and Wales had risen from 3.24 million in 1997 to 3.5 million in 2002 (STRB 2002). DfEE and Welsh Office projections show that the number is likely to increase to 3.56 million by the year 2005 (School Teachers' Review Body, 2001).

There are also important questions about how intake targets were set, even though DfEE had published an explanatory paper on the model and assumptions they used in setting targets. There were suggestions that the targets were actually based upon how many new teachers could be afforded, rather than on actual demand (House of Commons 1997a, 1997b). The reduction of targets in 1996 and 1997, in the face of rising pupil numbers, was seen by some as indicative of the lack of government confidence in increasing the number of teachers. In reality, however, this reduction was an effort to undo the "mistake" made in 1995 where there was an unexplained, and perhaps unwarranted, upward revision of targets (House of Commons 1997a, Vol I, para 15). The indicative targets for 1997, issued in 1994, appeared to be in line with the long-term trend. If the long-term projection for 1997 had been considered there might not have been the controversial reduction in targets in 1996 and 1997.

Taken in perspective, however, the scale of the targets appear challenging. To achieve the PGCE secondary maths intake target for 2001-02, for example, would mean recruiting nearly half of all maths students graduating in 2001 (STRB 2001). According to the then Secretary of State for Education, four out of ten maths graduates would need to become teachers if existing training targets were to be met, and to aim higher might not be practicable (Howson 2001a, 2001b). Similarly, to meet PGCE targets in modern foreign languages and RE, over 40% of the UK graduate output in these subjects would be needed each year (Schoolsnet 2001). So the problem is more than the perceived unattractiveness of teaching as a career or poor pay, for example. The issue is that the number of people being taught to graduate level in these shortage subjects is relatively low. Taking into account the fact that the teaching profession must compete with other industries recruiting graduates, the number entering ITET in recent years might be considered to be healthy. According to the Teachers' Training Agency (TTA), more than two-thirds of employers had difficulty recruiting graduates of the right calibre between 2000 and 2001 (STRB 2002). The problem was particularly acute among organisations recruiting maths and science graduates. It would seem, then, that the teaching profession might not be experiencing specific recruitment difficulties, but only those affecting graduate employers more widely.

According to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), between 1997 and 2001 the number of graduates (including postgraduates, first degree and other undergraduates) increased from 431.9 thousand to 470.3 thousand (an increase of 8.9%). Graduations from the physical sciences, engineering and technology, in contrast, declined by approximately 10%, while mathematical science graduates showed an increase of 10% during the same period (from 5,000 in 1997 to 5,500 in 2001). There are several issues here. One is that the number of graduates in shortage subjects is not increasing fast enough to cope with the increasing demands of the labour market in general. The second is the reluctance of these graduates to go into teaching, and the third is the difficulty in getting students to opt for these subjects at higher levels in school and university.

In a report reviewing the supply of scientists for the Treasury, it was found that school children had greater difficulty in getting high marks in science and maths than for other subjects (Canovan 2002). One of the reasons was the "parlous state" of science teaching in schools described in the report. The report also found that, to protect their league table positions, some schools were discouraging their students from doing "hard" science subjects at A-level. In the words of the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee Chairman: "School science can be so boring it puts young people off science for life. The Committee also remarked that GCSE coursework was "boring and pointless" and "stultifying". It added that "it kills the interest which may have been kindled at primary school" (Canovan, 2002, p 6). This may contribute to a spiral effect because if science teaching was not up to standard, the number of students going on to do science at A-level or degree level might decline. With fewer graduates in a competitive job market, the proportion going into teaching with good degree results is likely to be affected.

Some have argued that recruitment to PGCE courses is closely related to the peaks and troughs in new graduate unemployment, and that the current teacher supply "crisis" is due to high employment in the economy making it difficult to recruit graduates (Schoolsnet 2001). However, even if overall teaching recruitment targets were met, there would still be shortages in some regions. This is because the DfEE (as it then was) did not take into consideration regional differences in its calculation of recruitment targets. According to the DfEE "the number of teachers needed, minus the number in post and those known to be returning to teaching, will give the number to be trained nationally" (Dean 2000a, p 4). A report by the Education Management Information Exchange at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) suggested this calculus might be partly responsible for the continued teacher shortages in some regions because "such a view seems to assume that those trained teachers will fill automatically the teaching vacancies wherever they appear. The regional data suggest otherwise" (Dean 2000b).

3.3 Wastage Rates

The number of teachers who leave the service include those who retire, those who resign due to ill-health, to seek alternative employment, to look after young children or for other reasons. This includes both "wastage" and "turnover" rates. The definitions adopted here are those used by the School Teachers' Review Body (STRB 2002). Wastage is defined as teachers who leave full-time service in the maintained sector during the school year. Some of these may not leave teaching at all, but either continue into part-time service, move to the further or higher education sectors, or teach in fee-paying institutions. Turnover is defined as teachers in full-time service in the maintained sector but who are not in full-time service in the same establishment the following year. It constitutes all retirements, resignations, and includes "wastage" and transfers to other institutions within the sector. Because teachers must resign from their post before they can take up another, it means that, theoretically, turnover rates can increase although the number of teachers remains the same.

Until 1998, the number of teachers leaving full-time service in England and Wales was consistently higher than the number who entered. In 1997-98, 37,700 left while 34,700 entered service. From 1998 onwards, despite an increasing number of teachers leaving full-time service, inflows have been higher than outflows. In England, in 1999-2000, the number of full-time qualified teachers who left the secondary maintained sector was 11,600 and the corresponding inflow was 13,500 (DfEE data includes England only from 1999-2000 onwards). One reason is that the increase in outflow was due to a higher number of people moving from full-time service to part-time service. According to the STRB figures on England and Wales, there was also an increase in the number of teachers who have moved to schools in other LEAs or non-LEA institutions (see below). This may explain why the popular perception runs counter to that of the Government's. In other words, an increasing number of teachers were leaving schools, but not necessarily the profession. Many were still in teaching.

Figure 3.5 shows the "wastage rate" for full-time teachers in England and Wales. Unfortunately, information relating only to Wales could not be located, nor could data expressed as frequencies. This definition of "wastage" can be misleading, as it runs counter to popular uses of the term. Teachers moving to the further or higher education sectors, and to fee-paying schools, are counted as "wastage". It is unlikely, however, that students in such institutions (or their parents) would define them as such. In the case of employment in post-16 institutions, teachers are merely moving from one sector of state-funded education to another. Although independent schools are not state-funded, they could be argued to be providing a public service and teachers working in these institutions are responsible for the education of a substantial proportion of UK-domiciled pupils.

It should be noted that the data are accompanied by the following warning, specifying that "the wastage rate for those aged 50+ in 1997 and 1998 reflects the increase in early retirements brought about by changes to the Teachers' Pension Scheme in April 1997 and September 1997. The subsequent decrease in early retirements resulted in a much lower wastage rate in 1999".

There are no particularly remarkable trends in the data for wastage rates for the years 1990-91 to 2000-01. The wastage rate in 1997-98 (10.3%) is only marginally higher than in 1990-91 (10.2%). Although the proportion of teachers leaving the profession rises year by year from 1992-93 to 1997-98, the change in pensions legislation affecting figures in 1998-99 obscures the extent to which this may, or may not, have continued over the following two years. The effect of the above mentioned policy change can be seen more clearly when the data is disaggregated by age group.

What is interesting is the extent to which the wastage rates between the nursery and primary, and secondary sectors are correlated (r = 0.815). There are many reasons why it would be reasonable to expect differences in wastage rates between (as well as within) sectors. Working conditions vary according to age of pupils taught and at an aggregate level the social and educational backgrounds of teachers varies, in certain respects, according to the sector they are employed in. What is unclear, however, is why the changes in wastage rates for the two sectors tends to be in the same direction over the course of any given year, and why such a high correlation exists between both the direction and magnitude of the changes. This, perhaps, suggests the influence of factors affecting the whole teaching profession or, alternatively, could be an artefact of the data collection and analysis processes used by the DfES.

It is clear that, overall, the total number of resignations from permanent full-time positions in LEA schools has increased 1994-2001. This, however, does not mean that more teachers are leaving the profession, as the data includes those taking up employment in institutions similar to the ones they left. Indeed, increased turnover of this type may be considered reflective of a healthy internal labour market. If the proportion of teachers in the latter group remains constant there will be no net losses. The greater the turnover the higher the vacancy rate will appear in any snapshot. However, high turnover and vacancy rates do not necessarily have direct implications for how difficult posts are to fill, or to obtain.

As Figure 3.6 shows, since 1994 the most popular destination of resigning teachers has been a post in an LEA school within the compulsory sector. Retirement and maternity are the second most popular destinations, although the former accounts for many more resignations than does the latter (see below) and were previously (from 1994 to 1997) the most popular destination. The change in pensions legislation, mentioned earlier, may be responsible for the change in this trend. And it should also be considered that those teachers resigning to raise children may return to the profession at a later date, whilst those who retire are less likely to. Leaving the teaching profession altogether is the next most prevalent career choice, followed by taking a teaching post in a non-LEA institution.

A large majority of resignations, then, are accounted for by moving from one teaching post to another in a similar institution, or by "natural" wastage due to retirement or maternity. Total resignation and turnover rates can, thus, give a misleading impression of the state of teacher supply. Those teachers moving from their present school to a similar one do not, presumably, present a major problem for the profession. Retirements, whether due to ill-health or reaching the normal retirement age are usually unavoidable, as is maternity. It is only resignations leading to other kinds of outcome that can be considered subject to any strategies to increase retention.

Amongst resigning teachers who moved to positions outside LEA schools but within the UK education system, the most common destination, for every year between 1994 and 2001, was an independent (fee-paying) school. In 1994 only 43% (430 of 1,010) of resignations leading to employment in non-LEA institutions were those taking posts in the independent sector, but by 2001 this had risen to 67% (1,200 of 1,780) (Table 3.3).

Table 3.3

DESTINATIONS, BY SECTOR, OF LEA FULL-TIME PERMANENT RESIGNING TEACHERS, 1994 TO 2001: (b) THOSE CONTINUING TO TEACH IN THE UK (%)


	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001

Independent School	42	40	43	49	50	49	67	67
University/FE/HE	21	28	21	19	22	18	22	19
Sixth form college	7	7	7	3	4	6	11	14
Grant-maintained school	30	24	29	29	24	27	—	—

Source: adapted from Employers' Organisation (2002, Table 4)

3.6 Teacher quality

There have been concerns that "insufficient high quality entrants were being attracted in comparison to other professions" and "the quality of entrants was low in shortage subject areas" (House of Commons, 1997a; BBC News, 2001). In a survey by the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT), seven out of ten vacancies in secondary schools in a London authority had been filled by people without the necessary qualifications (Levenson, 2001). The shortage in teachers was affecting the quality of teachers, especially those in the shortage subject areas. According to a TES report, only a quarter of Key Stage 3 teachers had maths qualifications, and up to 45% teaching 11-14 year olds had limited knowledge of maths and little or no training. Many of the teachers did not study the subject beyond A-level (Henry and Thornton, 2001). The dependence on supply teachers also had serious implications on the quality of lessons delivered. About 25% of lessons taught by supply teachers were regarded as unsatisfactory (House of Commons 2000). This was likely to have a spiral effect as sixth-form drop-out rates were reported to have worsened. In physics, one-third of the teachers did not have a physics degree while another third had not even passed physics A-level (Canovan and Ward, 2002). There were also concerns that some schools were discouraging students from doing "hard" sciences at A-level, meaning fewer students could take these subjects at degree level. And fewer graduates means fewer teachers with the required qualifications.

Teacher supply is not just about numbers; it is also about quality. DfEE figures showed that in England and Wales, between 1990 and 2000, the proportion of students completing PGCEs with a first or second class degree had increased from 82.3% to 91.7% (DfEE 2000, DfEE 2002b). But this was in line with the overall rise in the proportion of students obtaining these degree classes over the same period.

TTA figures (for England only) showed that the proportion of secondary maths PGCE students with 2:1 or better increased from 33% in 1996-97 to 37% in 1998-99 (TTA Performance Profiles 2000). However, Sir Steward Sutherland noted that entrants to mathematics ITET courses were twice as likely than average to have a third class degree or lower (House of Commons 1997a, para 49). For science the figures were slightly higher with 42% for the 1998-99 cohort holding a 2:1 or better. For almost all subjects, the proportion either remained the same or had improved slightly.

3.7 Gender, Age, Ethnicity and Disability

3.7.1 Gender

Between 1985 and 1998 the number of female full-time primary teachers in England and Wales increased by 13% (from 134,000 to 151 thousand) while the number of male teachers declined by 21%. Similarly, male full-time secondary teachers fell by more than 31% (to 88,000), but the number of female teachers also declined, by 9%, with most of the decline among both sexes occurring during the 1980s (Social Trends 30, 2000. p 53). Within a year the number of teachers increased by 1,500 to 189,300. However, most of this increase resulted from a rise in the number of women in the profession (Social Trends 30, 2000). There was a corresponding drop in the proportion of men in the sector (to 31%). This has important implications for teacher supply, as women are more likely to take breaks in their career for child-rearing. More importantly, there are proportionately more men than women taking degrees in shortage subjects such as maths, science and technology. Therefore, in order to increase the number of teachers in these subjects, it is crucial to make teaching attractive to men, or to encourage women to take maths, science and technology at school and university.

3.7.2 Age

The age profile of teachers in England and Wales in the year 2000 is shown in Figure 3.7. As can be seen the age groups containing the largest proportions of the profession were 45-49 and 50-54 years. It is, perhaps, unsurprising that there are relatively few teachers under the age of 25 as only those individuals who enrolled on ITET courses almost immediately after leaving post-compulsory or higher education would attain QTS and be able to enter the profession before that age. As many young people take "gap" years between the various stages of education they participate in, and some individuals do not decide to enter the teaching profession until later in life, the proportionally small representation of under-25s in the profession as a whole should not necessarily be interpreted as evidence of a recruitment problem. It is interesting, however, that interviews with headteachers, conducted as part of a major study in the late 1980s, revealed that ITET graduates in this age group, preferably with a PGCE qualification, were the applicants most sought after by those making appointments (Smithers and Robinson, 1991).

Several plausible explanations for the small proportion of teachers in the 55-59 and 60+ age brackets can also be provided. Early retirement has been available to teachers for some time. The relatively small number of teachers aged 55 and over, then, may be predominantly accounted for by early retirements and/or retirements due to ill-health (and the legislation on retirement was changed in the late 1990s). What is less clear, however, is the explanation for the proportion of teachers in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups. These two groups, combined, account for only slightly more than 20% of all teachers. This could, of course, be accounted for by historical trends in recruitment to the profession but, as previously mentioned, new entrants are not all graduates in their twenties entering their first career. Some graduates of ITET courses previously worked in other areas of the labour market or may be mature entrants to higher education. The age profile illustrated, then, is unlikely to be solely the product of historical trends in the recruitment of new entrants to the profession. Indeed, if all previous years showed a similar age profile as the year 2000, the most obvious explanation for the observed pattern would be teachers leaving the profession in their thirties. A common explanation for leaving work during these years is maternity and childrearing. The data offers some evidence to support this, as, whilst the proportion of male teachers aged 25-29 is almost identical to those aged 30-34, the proportion of female teachers in the 30-34 years category is much small than that in the 25-29 years group. However, as the data is only a "snapshot" of one year's distribution, it is an insufficient basis on which to make any definitive conclusions.

Whatever explanation underlies the relative lack of teachers in their thirties, it is, perhaps, paradoxical that it is applicants to ITET courses of this age that are, proportionally, the least likely to be offered training places. If the imbalance in the age profile of the teaching profession is perceived to be a problem, the reasons for the imbalance in acceptance rates onto ITET courses for this age group would be a productive area of investigation. Strategies could then be introduced, perhaps, to ensure that more applicants from this age group are accepted onto ITET. It may be the case that the entrance requirements for ITET are not as flexible for "mature" entrants as for many other undergraduate courses and that access could be widened in this respect. This would not, of course, ensure that these trainees eventually enter the profession (or even complete the training) but it may increase the number who get the opportunity to do so.

3.8 What are the limits to recruitment?

Although pay may not be the main factor putting people off teaching, it certainly is an important factor. Teacher unions have repeatedly asserted that teachers' salaries compare unfavourably with average graduate starting salaries in other sectors of the economy. The Smithers and Robinson report (Schoolsnet 2001), commissioned by the National Union of Teachers, noted that the starting salary for teachers with a good honours degree (£16,000) did not compare well with many other graduate occupations, which averaged at £18,300. The authors recommended that teachers' salaries be made more attractive and competitive, with salaries starting at between £20,000 and £22,000 for teachers in state schools, and with heads of department earning a maximum of £40,000. Dissatisfaction with salaries was also linked to recent changes in the profession. According to Smithers

It looks as if many (teachers) have got ground down by the changes in the profession. One of the arguments on better salary was that people had gone into teaching as a vocation, and it has become a much more industrial process where they (teachers) were judged by output. If the criteria and targets of industry were going to be applied to them (teachers), they were looking for a commensurate salary.

(from: Naylor and Schaefer 2002, p 1)

Higher salaries were justified, it was argued, because they could bring about higher quality education and thus make teaching more pleasurable and rewarding. However, the salary figures used by the NUT and the Smithers and Robinson report were from the Association of Graduate Recruiters (AGR). The AGR's figures were based on better qualified graduates, on special recruitment programmes, with major graduate employers (National Employers' Organisation for School Teachers 2001). These graduates accounted for only one in eight of all graduates entering employment. In other words the figures used by the AGR overstated the average salaries of new graduates. Moreover, the starting salary for teachers quoted by the unions were based on figures outside London, while the figures used by the AGR (which the unions used as evidence for the disparity) were based primarily on average starting salaries among London-based employers (STRB, 2001; National Employers' Organisation for School Teachers, 2001).

Other salary surveys, such as those conducted by Barclays Bank and by the Higher Education Careers Services Unit, indicated that graduates were entering a widening range of jobs with many employers who were not AGR members. These graduates were often on salaries more than £2,000 below the figures used by the AGR (STRB, 2001). The selective nature of the statistics used by the unions on graduate pay progression thus maximised the gap between the pay of "graduates generally" and the pay of teachers (National Employers' Organisation, 2001).

Another discrepancy in the teachers unions' submission was the use of two different data sources in their comparison of teachers' pay. The unions compared teachers' earnings from the Review Body's survey with those of non-manual earnings data from the New Earnings Survey. It would make more sense to use data from the same source which used the same methodology. Using the same data source, it was found that teachers' earnings were actually 110% of the average non-manual earnings for the year 2000. In fact, compared to non-manual earnings teachers' earnings were higher in 2000 than at any time between 1982 and 1990 (National Employers' Organisation, 2001). The National Employers' Organisation condemned the unions' submission as misleading by not comparing like with like when comparing teachers' pay with average earnings in the economy.

The number of teachers needed in a school is, in part, dependent on how many teachers the school can afford. Table 3.4 shows how funding per pupil in secondary maintained schools in England has changed between 1995-96 and 1999-2000. Funding per pupil had fallen between 1996 and 1997, the period of lowest teacher vacancies. From 1997-2002 pupil funding continued to increase. This coincided with the period when teacher vacancies started to rise.

Table 3.4

CHANGES IN FUNDING PER PUPIL IN ENGLAND 1995-96 TO 1999-2000


	1995-96	1996-97	1997-98	1998-99	1999-2000	2000-01

Real-terms index (%)	100	100	98	99	102	110

Source: DfES (2002) Departmental Annual Report

In a memorandum submitted to the House of Commons Education and Employment Committee (House of Commons, 1997, Appendix 15), it was found that in 1996 and 1997, when there was a budgetary cut, 36.7% of schools surveyed reported having to reduce staffing with 43.6% saying they may have to do so the following year. It was calculated that such reductions amount to a loss of 0.7 teachers per school. Funding per pupil has been recognised as one of the reasons for the current increase in demand for teachers. In May 2001 a response to the Select Committee on Education and Employment Minutes of Evidence stated:

It is true that there is increased demand for teachers and in fact extra money which is in the system is being used to create extra posts. Compared with last year it has created 7,700 extra teaching posts and that is part of the reason why demand for teachers is increasing

(House of Commons, 2001, para 40).

Another alternative explanation for the decline in teacher vacancies in the early 1990s is school numbers. Interestingly, the period between 1991 and 1995 coincided with the early impact of the Education Reform Act in 1988, which saw the introduction of policies such as school choice and pupil-led funding. These policies were partly an attempt to reduce surplus places in some schools. By closing very small schools with surplus places and transferring children to other schools, there was greater efficiency in the deployment of staff, since these teachers are likely to be in larger schools with a higher pupil:teacher ratio (Fidler et al, 1993). The policies resulted in the merger and closure of schools. The result is fewer schools. Fewer, but larger, schools led to fewer teacher vacancies year-on-year from 1990-96. However, after 1996, as the number of schools continued to decline, teacher vacancies increased. Two factors were at play here. One was that the decline in the number of schools in England slowed down (Figure 3.8), the other was the increase in pupil funding. Looking at Table 3.4, it can be seen that from 1997-98 onwards expenditure per pupil (including spending on teaching and non-teaching staff salaries), increased every year, and the biggest increase was between 1999-2000 and 2000-01. This perhaps explains the sudden surge in teacher vacancies over the same period. Between 2000 and 2001, the rate of decline in the number of schools increased again, partly explaining the drop in teacher vacancies in 2002.

This re-analysis of national secondary statistics relating to teacher recruitment and teaching vacancies serves to remind us that the dominant contemporary discourse is based on a partial account. There are more trained teachers in service today in England and Wales than there have ever been, and teaching vacancies are only a fraction of what they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s. There are proportionately more vacancies in some areas than others, but these are chiefly in inverse proportion to the operational level of local pupil:teacher ratios. Areas with higher vacancy figures, such as Inner London, operate with correspondingly low pupil:teacher ratios, and areas with low vacancies, such as South West England, operate with higher ratios. In fact, regression analysis shows that variation in teacher vacancies over time is almost entirely explicable in terms of school closures (See 2001). After the reforms of the 1980s many schools in England and Wales were closed to reduce surplus places in the system (even though pupil numbers had begun to rise again). Fewer, but larger, schools inevitably led to fewer teacher vacancies year-on-year from 1990-1996. Since 1997, more recent policy changes relating to diversity and class sizes have meant that the number of schools began to rise in proportion to the size of the relevant age cohorts. Simultaneously, teacher vacancies also rose (but nowhere near the level of 1990 as yet). It is this rise that lies at the heart of the current crisis.

Another policy measure affecting teacher supply is the proposal for a greater degree of school-based teacher training (Fidler et al, 1993). Gilroy (1998) argued that this move away from a university-based teacher education was an important cause of the recruitment "crisis" experienced in the recent years. He explained that by handing over the one-year secondary initial teacher education course to schools, at least 80% of students' time would be school-based—an equivalent to four days per week. This would mean a "considerable shift of funds" from universities and colleges to the schools (Clarke, 1992). An important consequence of this change in policy was a substantial increase in the cost of initial teacher education (Gilroy, 1998). Teachers, on the other hand, were concerned that they were spending too much time with student teachers at the expense of the school children. Consequently some schools withdrew their partnership with their universities. This started a chain of events whereby students might apply to courses but were rejected because no schools could be found to place them for the school-based training. There could also be a situation where students are accepted only for the school to withdraw a partnership later on. If a school cannot be found for the students to carry out their school-based component of the course, the university must withdraw their offer to the students (Gilroy, 1998). The net results are fewer universities running initial teacher education courses and fewer students that can be accepted on to courses.

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June 2003



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