Further supplementary memorandum by the
Strategic Rail Authority (TYP 45B)
1. Which markets the 40-50 per cent growth
in passenger kilometres will be between peak and off-peak and
an indication of how much of this is expected to be mode-shift
and how much newly generated trips?
Peak and off-peak growth forecasts are only
produced for London and the South East, as Strategic Routes and
Regional services have less well defined peaks. Peak growth for
London and the South East is forecast to be in the range of 14-20
per cent over 10 years, and off-peak growth in the area by 30-54
per cent, depending on the particular market conditions and planning
developments within each franchise.
For the network as a whole, a review of research
on mode shift has indicated that between 30 per cent and 70 per
cent of new rail journeys are diverted from the road network,
depending upon the particular conditions of each franchise. The
SRA is continuing to develop, in conjunction with the Highways
Agency and other experts, this key area of research and review
its approach to determining the most appropriate value to use
in each particular case.
2. A breakdown of how much of the Plan is
attributed to each of the schemes identified on page 53 of the
As the SRA are in commercial negotiations with
private sector investors on many of the schemes at present, it
is not possible to provide a complete breakdown indicating how
much of the Plan is attributed to each scheme.
3. Why passenger kilometres rather than journeys
has been selected as the target for the Plan and whether there
has been a change from looking at journeys to passenger kilometres
over the life of the SRA?
The SRA's draft Directions and Guidance from
the Secretary of State include the targets in the Government's
10 Year Plan. It would be for the Department of Transport, Local
Government and the Regions to explain why the target is passenger
kilometres rather than passenger journeys. In our view, however,
passenger kilometres is a better intermediate measure than passenger
journeys of the contribution of increased rail use to the 10 Year
Plan's wider goals of reducing congestion, greenhouse gas emissions
etc. There has been no change as between passenger kilometres
and passenger journeys over the life of the SRA.