Select Committee on Transport, Local Government and the Regions Appendices to the Minutes of Evidence


Supplementary memorandum by the DTLR (TYP 28F)

DETAILS OF STUDIES AND LOCAL MODELS USED TO DERIVE THE TRAFFIC REDUCTION FACTOR USED TO REPRESENT THE EFFECTS OF URBAN REGENERATION

  1.  The modelling for the 10 Year Plan of the effects of urban regeneration was based on work done in the preparation of the publication Tackling Congestion and Pollution (DTLR, January 2000). For this, the Department commissioned consultants W S Atkins to assess the effects of Government policies (particularly those in the Integrated Transport White Paper) on national traffic levels. In assessing the effects of land use policies, they were assisted by Peter Headicar of Oxford Brookes University. An extract (23 pages) from their report is attached.

  2.  The result of this research is an assumption that land use planning policy contributes to lower traffic growth by shifting development towards denser urban settlement and increasing the density of those areas identified for rapid household growth. For the 10 Year Plan, we assumed that such redistribution of development was constrained within the population totals for each county in the model's baseline (this scenario is known as LU3R in Atkins' report).

ANTICIPATED CHANGES TO THE SPENDING PROFILE OF THE 10 YEAR PLAN

  3.  The profile of 10 Year Plan spending is currently being reviewed as part of the first report on the Plan itself and the parallel work on the cross-government Spending Review 2002. The outcome of these reviews is expected to be announced in the summer.

  4.  However, the profiles have already changed since the 10 Year Plan was published, The breakdown of public investment expenditure and private investment for each year 2001-02 to 2010-11 is shown in tables A to D below, expressed in outturn prices (previously given to the House in February in response to a written parliamentary question). As the tables show some funding has been brought forward to the early years for rail.

  5.  Total public expenditure on rail over the first three years of the 10 Year Plan (2001-04), excluding revenue support for private investment, is £8.9 billion compared to the total rail for over the same period published in the 10 Year Plan of £7.5 billion.



 
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