Memorandum submitted by the Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
INTRODUCTION
Achieving sustainable social and economic development
both in developing and developed countries is harder under conditions
of climate change than under conditions of climate stability.
The aims of the UK Department for International Development (DFID),
as set out in the International Development Targets which seek
to reduce poverty, are all likely to be affected to some degree
by the impacts associated with climate change at global and local
scales. International assessments such as the Third Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
have begun to address the development, sustainability and equity
aspects of climate change. The underlying vulnerability of populations
to climate change is determined by social, institutional and economic
factors coupled with their sensitivity to climate change impacts.
There are invariably opportunities for adaptation to climate change,
but these must be facilitated within the wider development and
social context.
The UK government is committed both to realising
the goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change through
the Kyoto Protocol and to contribute to the World Summit on Sustainable
Development in 2002. The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC states
that the global average temperature is likely to rise above the
1990 level by between 1.4 and 5.8ºC by 2100. Some of this
warming has already been experienced, although the associated
impacts remain difficult to identify with certainty given the
confounding factors of natural climate variability and social
change. The longer-term impacts of climate change, however, will
include shifting supply and access to key resources. These changes
will constitute major challenges to the sustainable achievement
of the human development and environmental aspects of the international
development targets. Efforts around the nascent Climate Adaptation
Fund of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change are increasingly
focussing on seeking sustainable adaptation strategies in combination
with reducing overall emissions trajectories.
The impacts of future climate change will be
clearly socially differentiated impacting on the poorest countries
in the world and potentially threatening development efforts.
The Committee has already recognised in its initial questions
the potential impacts on least developed countries. The latest
reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show
that small island nations, particularly the low-lying atoll nations,
are particularly at risk, while large numbers of people reliant
on weather-sensitive resources for their livelihoods, from monsoonal
Asia to dryland Africa are also likely to be negatively affected.
The impacts of future change will be felt on resource-dependent
communities and in a multitude of primary and secondary effects
cascading through natural and social systems. Here we address
four key issues: vulnerability and adaptation, the impact of climate
change on inequality, factors that increase vulnerability, and
strategies for adaptation. These are key issues in the formulation
of sustainable development strategies. We conclude with a number
of recommendations.
ISSUE 1: VULNERABILITY
AND ADAPTATION
People's vulnerability to (ie their capacity
to be harmed by) climate change depends not only on the likely
responses of the systems on which they depend, but also on the
ability of people and systems to adapt to change. The vulnerability
of a system to climate change is determined by (i) the likelihood
of occurrence of an unusual climatic event (climatic exposure),
(ii) the physical setting of the system (physical exposure or
sensitivity) and (iii) the ability of the system to adapt
to change (adaptive capacity). A system may be a local
community, a particular economic group or industry, an agricultural
system, a transport network, or a whole society or country. An
unusual climatic event may be a storm, a drought, or a long-term
change to a new climatic regime. Sensitivity will be high where
the system in question includes, for example, settlements built
on flood plains, hill slopes or low-lying coastal areas. Adaptation
may take the form of reducing dependence on vulnerable systems
(for example diversifying food production away from a limited
number of drought-prone crops), of decreasing sensitivity (by
avoiding building settlements and infrastructure in high-risk
locations), or by strengthening existing systems so that they
are less likely to be damaged by unusual events (such as building
houses on stilts or improving drainage in flood-prone areas).
Given the uncertainty inherent in climate change
scenarios, it is difficult to quantify future exposures, although
exposure is likely to increase for developing countries, as discussed
in the next section. However, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
as defined here are not dependent on climate. They may be measured
using contemporary and historical data and interventions may be
made in order to decrease sensitivity and increase adaptive capacity.
The Tyndall Centre is currently funding a project whose aim is
to develop indicators of vulnerability, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity, using socio-economic and geographical data, and data
relating to natural disasters and their consequences over the
twentieth century. This research demonstrates that different geographic
and socio-economic factors cause vulnerability to current climate
variability to vary greatly between countries. A country (or
system at a sub-national scale) that is vulnerable to current
climate variability will also be vulnerable to the impacts of
future climate change. Priorities for adaptation may therefore
be identified by examining the distribution of high-impact natural
disasters in the recent past—the worst affected countries
will be those that will benefit most from carefully targeted adaptation
measures that are implemented within the framework of sustainable
development programmes.
ISSUE 2: IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON
INEQUALITY
Developing countries are situated predominantly
in tropical and sub-tropical regions. They are therefore particularly
exposed to climatic hazards such as droughts and floods, which
occur as a consequence of high rainfall variability (both phenomena)
and the development of tropical storms (floods). The IPCC[21]
reports that future increases in sea-level and temperature are
likely to increase the mean and peak precipitation intensities
associated with tropical storms, increasing vulnerability to flooding
and landslides, such as caused the large loss of life associated
with Hurricane Mitch in Central America, particularly in Honduras
and Nicaragua, in 1998. Increasing populations in economically
productive coastal zones (due to birth rates and migration) will
also increase national vulnerability to tropical storms via increased
potential mortality and damage to physical infrastructure. Economic
damage from such events is considerable, often running into billions
of dollars.
The IPCC also reports that, while mean rainfall
is likely to increase over many areas in the mid and high latitudes
of the northern hemisphere, the frequency of extreme rainfall
events is likely to increase everywhere, as will rainfall variability.
Increased rainfall variability will increase the risk of drought
in semi-arid regions such as the African Sahel, and more frequent
extreme rainfall events will increase the likelihood of crop damage
and flash floods. Increased isolated heavy rainfall events are
also likely to increase the rapidity and severity of soil erosion,
which may in turn increase dust storm activity, a serious health
hazard in arid and semi-arid zones.
It is therefore highly likely that the adverse
impacts of climate change will be felt disproportionately by developing
nations situated in the tropics and subtropics, particularly those
already vulnerable to drought, soil erosion, sea-level rise and
tropical storm damage. Within these countries, the poor will be
the worst affected, due to poor housing situated in the most exposed
locations (for example on unstable hillsides), and a lack of capital
with which to purchase foodstuffs in times of scarcity. Poverty
is also associated with a lack of access to healthcare, and with
a lack of coping capacity generally. Climate change thus has a
very real potential to increase inequality both between and within
nations, as the poorest nations and communities suffer the greatest
adverse impacts on mortality, health, infrastructure and economic
well-being. These impacts are likely to have negative effects
on social, political and economic stability, making the countries
affected less attractive for foreign investment and therefore
inhibiting economic growth as conventionally measured, increasing
the gap between rich and poor nations. Perhaps more importantly,
increased exposure will jeopardise sustainable benefits from development
investment unless such investment includes adaptation measures
designed to enhance the coping capacity of developing countries.
ISSUE 3: FACTORS
AFFECTING VULNERABILITY
Ongoing research at the Tyndall Centre is attempting
to identify how social groups and sectors of the economy are vulnerable
to climate change. In South East Asia, for example, previous work
by UEA researchers funded by the ESRC[22]
showed that vulnerability within localities is determined by levels
of poverty and the distribution both of wealth and income, but
also the distribution of power within communities. Vulnerability,
therefore, is mediated by institutions of governance. In the field
of impacts of natural hazards and disaster relief it has long
been known that catastrophic events typically reinforce underlying
inequalities. Our research in Vietnam and elsewhere has demonstrated
that vulnerability to long-term change fits the same pattern—there
will be winners and losers from climate change but the losers
are likely to be those already marginalized.
This research also demonstrated how governance
issues are key in preventing maladaptation, and that there is
potential for institutional change to increase and exacerbate
vulnerability. Economic liberalisation and the negative impacts
of economic globalisation can undermine social mechanisms for
coping with climate change and climate variability. This has been
shown through careful empirical work in developing countries faced
with present day weather extremes that are likely to be exposed
to significant impacts of climate change. Furthermore, trajectories
of economic development vary between countries, and a development
model that is appropriate in one case may be inappropriate in
another. For example, an emphasis on urban industrialisation and
export-driven agriculture is unlikely to solve problems of rural
poverty, and may well exacerbate them, particularly in countries
that have a large rural population of subsistence farmers. Work
supported by DFID, ODI and ESRC[23]
shows that a shift from cash crops to food crops and from artificial
fertiliser to animal manure, and an emphasis on diversity in both
crop types and income sources, has facilitated sustainable agricultural
development in marginal regions of Africa and reduced vulnerability
to drought and famine. Strategies such as these are far more appropriate
to sustainable development in Africa than programmes that aim
to increase economic productivity per capita, which generally
exhibit an urban bias and further marginalise the rural poor.
ISSUE 4: STRATEGIES
FOR ADAPTATION
Adaptation to climate change is not a costless
exercise and investment in adaptation strategies will also inevitably
result in winners and losers. In addition, the nature of uncertainty
concerning the scope and magnitude of climate changes suggests
that some adaptation strategies may turn out to be redundant,
or in the worst scenarios, may actually be offset by maladaptation
in other policies and sectors.
Thus international development assistance appropriately
targeted which brings about sustainable development can enhance
adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. Policy recommendations
on enhancing resilience and alleviating vulnerability should be
targeted more carefully at particular groups and sectors, rather
than simply stating that one country or region is relatively more
vulnerable than others. The key problem is the identification
of adaptation options that minimise the impacts of climate change
on the most vulnerable parts of society. Planned adaptation at
the international scale could, for example, include collective
investment in plant-breeding research for agriculture, early warning
systems for food security, development of transferable infrastructure
technologies for coastal defence, underwriting of particular insurance
markets and other potential investments. These areas potentially
could be supported by DFID and other donor agencies where they
coincide with the objectives of the International Development
Targets. But the range of planned adaptation investment for individual
countries is more limited and specific to the geographical and
development circumstances. Planned adaptation in general forms
only a part of overall coping. Spontaneous reactive adjustments
in resource use and livelihood will be required by communities
whose livelihoods are directly or indirectly weather-dependent.
This adaptation must be facilitated through
governance structures that enhance adaptive capacity, and again
are geographically and culturally specific to different countries
and regions. A key aspect of adaptation is that it is highly context
specific and in order to have sufficient ownership from a broad
array of stakeholders it needs to be carried out in a process-oriented
multi-stakeholder dialogue mode at national and regional levels.
The ability to adapt should be enhanced through
international development assistance. But this does not mean that
resource-dependent communities are victims of climate change—people
have adapted to climatic changes throughout human history and
will continue to do so. Assessments of the future impacts of climate
change often utilise modelling of alternative future scenarios
to quantify impacts and risks and project that millions of people
may be in danger because of climate change.[24]
Such approaches give important insights into the scale of the
question. But research at the Tyndall Centre has also shown that
many aspects of adaptive capacity are, in effect, latent in the
networks and information of those likely to be affected. Evidence
on adaptation strategies adopted by farming, fishing and other
communities throughout the developing world suggests, though this
has yet to be tested, that some groups within society may be less
at risk than modelling studies portray because of this latent
ability to cope in times of stress.
Migration, for example, is a coping mechanism
used throughout history by societies as part of their resource
utilisation strategies and as a means of coping with climate variability.
Indeed migration, including to urban centres, continues to play
an important role in livelihood resilience to the present day
in many parts of the developing world. There is a high degree
of certainty that areas of the present day developing world will
face greater incidence of extreme weather events in the future.
If desirable migration is not available to those affected, it
may ultimately increase the necessity of displacement migration,
typically undertaken as a last resort when other coping strategies
are exhausted.
There is emerging evidence from Brazil[25],
Vietnam[26]
and the small island developing nations that new migrants even
to frontier areas build up knowledge of the local environments
to promote sustainable utilisation of resources. Migration would
appear to be a feasible climate adaptation strategy in particular
circumstances and particularly for small island nations, which,
regardless of past or future vulnerability, will be particularly
vulnerable to inundation due to sea-level rise; some of these
states may disappear altogether by the end of the twenty first
century.[27]
But the right to migration, particularly international migration
at a time when there are increasing inequities in international
labour flow practice[28],
is likely to be increasingly contested.
So when faced with significant changes in climate
regimes and weather extremes in the future, different societies
will clearly adopt radically different strategies. Their ability
to make a sustainable transition will be determined in part by
their underlying vulnerability and in part by governance issues.
Thus vulnerability to climate change cannot be divorced from the
wider sustainable development questions. Climate change gives
greater urgency for the international development community to
tackle these issues head on.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The Tyndall Centre makes the following conclusions
and recommendations regarding strategies on climate change and
sustainable development:
1. Vulnerability to climate change should
be assessed on the basis of recent vulnerability to extreme weather-
and climate-related events.
2. Small island states with large amounts
of land close to sea-level are particularly vulnerable regardless
of historical vulnerability, as they may be literally inundated
as sea-levels rise.
3. Low-lying small island states and countries
with high levels of poverty and high mortality rates from natural
disasters are priorities for adaptation funding.
4. New adaptation funds must be supplemental
to current development investment, and not a substitute for it.
5. Adaptation measures should include planning,
forecasting, and institution building. The international community
must recognise the right of people to migrate where climate change
is likely to make their livelihoods untenable.
6. Planned adaptation measures must take
careful account of local realities, and care must be taken to
avoid maladaptive practices and practices that inhibit autonomous
adaptation.
7. Conflicts between economic liberalisation
and sustainable development should be identified and efforts should
be made to ensure that economic globalisation does not have maladaptive
consequences for developing countries.
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
January 2002
21 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, WMO/UNEP. Back
22
Adger, W N, Kelly, P M and Ninh, N H (eds) (2001) Living with
Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience
in Vietnam. Routledge: London. Back
23
Mortimore, M and Tiffin, M (2001) Livelihood Transformations
in Semi-arid Africa 1960-2000, proceedings of a workshop arranged
by the ODI with Drylands Research and the ESRC, in the series
"Transformations in African agriculture", Drylands Research,
pp 26. Back
24
Parry, M, Arnell, N, McMichael, T, Nicholls, R J, Martens, P,
Kovats, S, Livermore, M, Rosenzweig, C, Aglesias, A and Fischer,
G (2001) Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats
and targets. Global Environmental Change 11, 181-183. Back
25
Muchagata, M and Brown, K (2000) Colonist farmers' perceptions
of fertility and the frontier environment in eastern Amazonia.
Agriculture and Human Values 17, 371-384. Back
26
Adger, W N, Kelly, P M, Locke, C, Winkels, A and Huy, L Q (2002)
Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories and social resilience.
Ambio 31, in press. Back
27
This is also the case for the British Overseas Territories. See
the work for DFID by Natural Resource Institute and Tyndall Centre
researchers-Sear, C, Hulme, M, Adger, W N and Brown, K (2001)
The Impacts of Global Climate Change on selected Overseas Territories.
Report to DFID Overseas Territories Unit. Natural Resources Institute
and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of
East Anglia. pp 101. Back
28
O'Neill, B C, MacKellar, F L and Lutz, W (2001) Population and
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Back
|
